A mere 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if Rogers' form were a sign or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. After the in-form star curled home his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard proposition to address. History, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, even as the wins have stacked up.
According to the data, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club who have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans look curiously susceptible – yet right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for Rogers to save the day with some precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and again against Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the player he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
