Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
